according to the median forecast in the monetary authority of singapore's december survey of professional forecasters, singapore's economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2012.
the most likely outcome as reflected by the mean probability forecast is for growth of between 3% to 3.9% which is much lower from the september survey range of between 5% to 5.9%.
growth in the manufacturing and financial services sector is expected to come down sharply to 3.4% (from an expected 8.5% this year) and 4.2% (from an expected 9.4% this year) in 2012 respectively.
for hotels and restaurants, growth is expected to be around 4%, down from 5.9% in 2011.
the one silver lining in the survey is headline cpi inflation is expected to be lower at 3.1% from the forecast of 5.1% for this year.
my comments:
yes, there are dark clouds hovering in the horizon as voiced by the consensus of opinions from economists and experts aplenty here and abroad.
and this is echoed in an informal poll at the website of channelnewsasia:
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/polls/index.php?action=vote&id=772&ranid=9015&voteNr=2
where an overwhelming 75% of respondents think a recession in our tiny red dot nation will happen any time between the next 3 to 12 months. only a minority of 7% believe our economy is sound and there will be no recession.
if the official government forecast for our economy is to grow from a rather tepid 1% to the upper range of 3% in 2012, it should translate to adding to the numbers unemployed from the current 2.1%
many people i know have already cut down on spending and have revised their budgets to eliminate wants and stay focused on needs. but those who are wiser should take another step which is to review and or revisit their wealth management planning.
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